Monday, January 28, 2013

Climate-Change Misdirection

 In addition to pandering to his left wing base about "Gun Control", the President has added "Climate Change" to his pander list. No doubt many will be energized by bold predictions unrelated to reality; but not Bjorn Lomborg , the environmentally-oriented economist who continues to challenge the conventional wisdom with facts and "math". It's really just policy decision-making by cost-benefit analysis instead of by emotionalism.

From his Climate-Change Misdirection article in the Wall Street Journal :
"if the main effort to cut emissions is through subsidies for chic renewables like wind and solar power, virtually no good will be achieved—at very high cost. The cost of climate policies just for the European Union—intended to reduce emissions by 2020 to 20% below 1990 levels—are estimated at about $250 billion annually. And the benefits, when estimated using a standard climate model, will reduce temperature only by an immeasurable one-tenth of a degree Fahrenheit by the end of the century.
Even in 2035, with the most optimistic scenario, the International Energy Agency estimates that just 2.4% of the world's energy will come from wind and only 1% from solar. As is the case today, almost 80% will still come from fossil fuels. As long as green energy is more expensive than fossil fuels, growing consumer markets like those in China and India will continue to use them, despite what well-meaning but broke Westerners try to do." 

He recommends funding more inexpensive R&D rather than ineffective business that can't survive without government subsidies. As Lomborg puts it:
"When innovation eventually makes green energy cheaper, everyone will implement it, including the Chinese. Such a policy would likely do 500 times more good per dollar invested than current subsidy schemes. But first let's drop the fear-mongering exaggeration—and then focus on innovation. "

Sounds like a good plan - even if we were not deep in deficit-land and didn't have a proven record of choosing poorly on "chrony-capitalism" projects.

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